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Category: Junior: Late Stage Development
Rating: 3.50   (Likely 5 Bagger as of 11/16/2013)
Risk: Moderate
Bear Creek Mining Corp.
www: www.bearcreekmining.com     email: info@bearcreekmining.com

Profile
Notes
Wiki

Price Data

Symbol Date Price Change 52 Wk Low 52 Wk High Volume
CVE:BCM 04/24/2014 CAD 1.400 -0.090 1.170 2.790 76,054
OTCMKTS:BCEKF 04/24/2014 USD 1.280 -0.070 1.120 2.740 15,391
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Summary (from last analysis - 11/16/2013)

I loved Bear Creek Mining until June 25, 2011. That was the day the President of Peru did the highly unusual act of revoking the mining rights at their Santa Ana project. He did this because of political pressure from local resistance to the project in Southern Peru. They still have their huge flagship project at Corani (300 million oz at 50 gpt). Corani is scheduled for production in 2016 at 10 million oz. They could reach 13 million oz of production during the first 8 years, then production will drop to 8-12 million oz for the rest of the mine life (22 years).

Because of base metal offsets (4.5 billion lbs of lead and zinc), the cash costs at Corani are projected below $5, making it a cash cow. In fact, for the first 5 years, cash costs are supposed to be negative. Very low cash costs makes it likely the can finance the $565 million capex. However, they might have to scale back the size of the mine to get financing.

If they can get Santa Ana back (management is confident this could happen), this could be an exciting company with two large projects heading to production. Santa Ana will take 18 months and $70 million to begin production of 5 million oz if they get their mining rights back. The cash costs at Santa Ana are projected to be about $8 per oz.

It's hard to predict the outcome of Santa Ana, but it really doesn't matter. If they are left with only Corani, this stock is likely a 5 bagger by 2015 (if they get financing), and perhaps a 20 bagger long term. The true risk is political. Is revoking of mineral rights the beginning of a change towards mining in Peru? Are higher taxes and potential nationalization a possibility in a few years? On the other hand, there is a possibility that Bear Creak will get back their mining rights for Santa Ana. If that happens, this stock is probably a 20 bagger.
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General Details

Financial 11/16/2013
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Mkt. Cap (Fully Diluted): $196.32M $126.89M 11/16/2013 $-69.43M
Total Assets: $140.71M $140.71M 11/16/2013 $0.00M
Total Liabilities: $3.01M $3.01M 11/16/2013 $0.00M
Current Assets: $63.81M $63.81M 11/16/2013 $0.00M
Current Liabilities: $1.46M $1.46M 11/16/2013 $0.00M
Total Debt: $0.00M $0.00M 11/16/2013 $0.00M
Cash: $56.00M $56.00M 11/16/2013 $0.00M
Cash Flow: $0.00M $0.00M never $0.00M
Cash Flow Multiple: 0.00 0.00 never 0.00
Finance within 1 year: 11/16/2013 n/a
Misc 11/16/2013
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Share Price: $1.963 $1.269 15:04 on 04/24/2014 $-0.69
Shares Oustanding: 92,000,000 92,000,000 11/16/2013 0
Shares Fully Diluted: 100,000,000 100,000,000 11/16/2013 0
Company Type: Mostly Silver Mostly Silver never n/a
Production ETA: n/a 06/01/2016 11/16/2013 n/a
Production (Gold Eq Oz.): (guess) 
0
(guess) 
0
11/16/2013 0
Production (Silver Eq Oz.): (guess) 
0
(guess) 
0
11/16/2013 0
Initial CapEx (Outstanding): $575.00M
292.89% of Mkt.Cap
$575.00M
453.14% of Mkt.Cap
11/16/2013 $0.00M
Funding Option: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 n/a
Tax Rate: (guess)  30.00% (default)  30.00% 11/16/2013 0.00%

Resource Data

GOLD 11/16/2013
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: n/a n/a never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 0.00M
Inferred: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: n/a n/a never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: n/a n/a 0oz.
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 $0.00
Average Grade: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 n/a
Recovery Rate: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 0.00M
Annual Production: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 n/a
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 n/a
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 n/a
SILVER 11/16/2013
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
O
U
N
C
E
S
T
O
T
A
L
Proven & Probable: 270.00M 270.00M 11/16/2013 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 350.00M 350.00M 11/16/2013 0.00M
Inferred: 50.00M 50.00M 11/16/2013 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 400.00M 400.00M never 0.00M
P
L
A
U
S
I
B
L
E
Proven & Probable: 175.50M 175.50M 11/16/2013 0.00M
Measured & Indicated: 217.10M 217.10M 11/16/2013 0.00M
Inferred: 16.25M 16.25M 11/16/2013 0.00M
Reserves & Resources: 233.35M 233.35M never 0.00M
C
U
R
R
E
N
T
Annual Production: n/a n/a 0oz.
Cash Cost: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 $0.00
Extra Operating Cost: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 $0.00
Average Grade: 50.00 g/t 50.00 g/t 11/16/2013 n/a
Recovery Rate: (actual)  65.00% (actual)  65.00% 11/16/2013 0.00%
F
U
T
U
R
E
Proven & Probable: 250.00M 250.00M 11/16/2013 0.00M
Annual Production: 10,000,000oz. 10,000,000oz. 11/16/2013 0oz.
Cash Cost: $5 $5 11/16/2013 $0
Extra Operating Cost: $10 $10 11/16/2013 $0

Property

Last Analysis Data  (11/16/2013)
Stage Location Name Owned Size (Ha) Type Gold Silver Notes
Development Cusco, Peru Corani 100% 5,700 Open Pit show
300 million oz deposit at 50 gpt, plus 4.5 billion lbs of lead and zinc.

10 million oz of silver for 20 years.

Low recovery rate of 65%.

Negative cash costs the first 5 years. $4 per oz the LOM.

$575 capex.

Construction could begin in 2015.
Development Puno, Peru Santa Ana 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Peru Alejandra 0% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Cusco, Peru La Yegua 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Peru Sumi 0% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Peru Tassa 100% n/a n/a n/a
Total Land Package Size (ha): 5,700  
Current Data
Stage Location Name Owned Size (Ha) Type Gold Silver Notes
Development Cusco, Peru Corani 100% 5,700 Open Pit show
300 million oz deposit at 50 gpt, plus 4.5 billion lbs of lead and zinc.

10 million oz of silver for 20 years.

Low recovery rate of 65%.

Negative cash costs the first 5 years. $4 per oz the LOM.

$575 capex.

Construction could begin in 2015.
Development Puno, Peru Santa Ana 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Peru Alejandra 0% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Cusco, Peru La Yegua 100% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Peru Sumi 0% n/a n/a n/a
Exploration Peru Tassa 100% n/a n/a n/a
Total Land Package Size (ha): 5,700  

Profitability (by resource)

Proven &
Probable
11/16/2013
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -5,611.91M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): 270.00M 270.00M n/a 0.00M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -3,647.74M
Silver Eq. Oz.: 175.50M 175.50M n/a 0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver): $712.53M $563.88M n/a $-148.65M
Total Maximum Profit: $712.53M $563.88M n/a $-148.65M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 3.629 4.444 n/a 0.814
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): $7.13 $5.64 n/a $-1.49
Total Max Profit Per Share: $7.13 $5.64 n/a $-1.49
Total Free Profit Per Share: $5.08 $4.24 n/a $-0.84
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $0.05 $47.69 n/a $47.63
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $1.12 $0.72 n/a $-0.40
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
5.38% 3.69% n/a -1.69%
Measured &
Indicated
11/16/2013
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -7,274.69M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): 350.00M 350.00M n/a 0.00M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -4,512.39M
Silver Eq. Oz.: 217.10M 217.10M n/a 0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver): $881.43M $697.54M n/a $-183.88M
Total Maximum Profit: $881.43M $697.54M n/a $-183.88M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 4.490 5.497 n/a 1.007
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): $8.81 $6.98 n/a $-1.84
Total Max Profit Per Share: $8.81 $6.98 n/a $-1.84
Total Free Profit Per Share: $6.76 $5.58 n/a $-1.19
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $0.04 $38.55 n/a $38.51
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $0.90 $0.58 n/a $-0.32
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
4.35% 2.98% n/a -1.36%

Reserves &
Resources
11/16/2013
Last Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Percentage Gold: n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Percentage Silver: 100.00% 100.00% n/a 0.00%
Total (Gold Eq. Oz.): n/a n/a n/a -8,313.94M
Total (Silver Eq. Oz.): 400.00M 400.00M n/a 0.00M
P

L

A

U

S

I

B

L

E
Gold Eq. Oz.: n/a n/a n/a -4,850.14M
Silver Eq. Oz.: 233.35M 233.35M n/a 0.00M
Maximum Profit (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00M
Maximum Profit (Silver): $947.40M $749.75M n/a $-197.65M
Total Maximum Profit: $947.40M $749.75M n/a $-197.65M
Max Profit / Current MCap: 4.826 5.909 n/a 1.083
Max Profit Per Share (Gold): n/a n/a n/a $0.00
Max Profit Per Share (Silver): $9.47 $7.50 n/a $-1.98
Total Max Profit Per Share: $9.47 $7.50 n/a $-1.98
Total Free Profit Per Share: $7.42 $6.10 n/a $-1.33
FD Mkt. Cap / Gold Eq.: $0.04 $35.87 n/a $35.83
FD Mkt. Cap / Silver Eq.: $0.84 $0.54 n/a $-0.30
FD Mkt. Cap / Per Metal
as % Spot Price:
4.04% 2.78% n/a -1.27%

Future Valuation (Cash Flow & Totals)

Totals 11/16/2013
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Current R & R Valuation: $728.05M $685.70M n/a $-42.35M
Current Mkt. Cap: $196.32M $126.89M n/a $-69.43M
F

U

T

U

R

E
FD Mkt. Cap: $3,750.00M $3,750M n/a $0M
FD Mkt. Cap Growth: 1,810% 2,855% n/a 1,045%
Annual
Production
Gold: n/a n/a n/a n/a
Silver: 10,000,000 oz. 10,000,000 oz. n/a 0 oz.
Current FD
Mkt. Cap /
Gold Eq. Reserves: 19.63 12.69 n/a -6.94
Silver Eq. Reserves: 0.79 0.51 n/a -0.28
Gold Eq. Production: 490.81 317.23 n/a -173.58
Silver Eq. Production: 19.63 12.69 n/a -6.94
P&P
Reserves
(oz.)
Gold: n/a n/a 11/16/2013 n/a
Silver: 250.00M 250.00M 11/16/2013 n/a
Gold Eq.: 10.00M 10.00M 11/16/2013 n/a
Silver Eq.: 250.00M 250.00M 11/16/2013 n/a
P&P Reserves
per FD
Share (oz.)
Gold: n/a n/a n/a n/a
Silver: 2.500 2.500 n/a n/a
Gold Eq.: 0.100 0.100 n/a n/a
Silver Eq.: 2.500 2.500 n/a n/a
Cash Flow 11/16/2013
Last
Analysis
Data

Current Data

Change
Item Value Value Updated Value
Current: $0.00M $0.00M n/a $0.00M
Current Multiple: 0.00 0.00 n/a 0.00
F
U
T
U
R
E
@ current prices: $34.80M $27.54M n/a $-7.26M
Multiple @ current prices: 5.64 4.61 n/a -1.03
Growth @ current prices: 0.00% 0.00% n/a 0.00
@ future prices: $510.00M $510.00M n/a $0.00M
Multiple @ future prices: 0.38 0.25 n/a -0.14
Growth @ future prices: 0.00% 0.00% n/a 0.00

Defaults

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